Friday, July 14, 2006

Hard Rain Journal 7-14-06: Tsunami Threat to Hawaii and West Coast Underestimated, Is Your Organization Prepared in Any Way, Shape or Form?

"New evidence from the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami is causing civil defense modelers to reassess recommended evacuation zones and the hazards of multiple waves...These new analyses suggest that the tsunami threat to Hawaii, particularly the south shore of Oahu, and California may be much greater than previously calculated. One ominous aspect of the new studies is the increased vulnerability of populated coastal areas"
Tsunami Threat to Hawaii and West Coast Underestimated: Models Do Not Account for Multiple, Bigger Waves Inundating Populated Areas, Public Employees For Environmental Responsibility, Common Dreams, 7-12-06

Hard Rain Journal 7-14-06: Tsunami Threat to Hawaii and West Coast Underestimated, Is Your Organization Prepared in Any Way, Shape or Form?

By Richard Power


As I noted in GS(3) Thunderbolt: Travel Security Lessons from the Upheaval within the Ring of Fire, seven major earthquakes have hit Indonesia since 2000, and four have hit in the last 17 months, including the magnitude 9.0 quake that caused the Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004

Do you know where your offices and operations are located within the zones of potential tsunami activity? Have you looked at this risk at all? Do you know where your business travelers are on any given day? Do you care about the safety of your people when they are away from work on holiday?

I led a global crisis management team that worked 24x7 on the Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami for several weeks, locating unaccounted-for personnel, and conducting a search and rescue for the missing.

There were many extraordinary stories of survival, and of what Harry Potter's Professor McGonigle called "sheer, dumb luck."

One of our people was vacationing in Sri Lanka. She decided to take her children into town instead of to the beach on the day the tsunami hit. Another one of our people, vacationing in Thailand, was stepping into a taxi when he turned around and saw the tsunami. He took the taxi to his hotel, but it had been destroyed. Fortunately, he had his travel documents with him and took a ten-hour taxi ride to Bangkok. Several of our people were hospitalized, several more suffered minor injuries. Some lost their family homes.

There was also tragedy. Three members of one European executive's family were killed in Thailand, leaving an orphaned boy.

All of these people were in the region on vacation, or visiting their familes. In total, we had to verify the status of less than one hundred people. We were lucky.

The Sumatra-Andama earthquake, in December 2004, was the fourth most powerful earthquake recorded since 1900, and one of the ten worst in history. "The entire Earth's surface is estimated to have moved vertically by up to 1 cm. The shift of mass and the massive release of energy very slightly altered the Earth's rotation." The Indian Ocean tsunami, which resulted from it, was the deadliest one in recorded history. The United Nations declared that the relief operation will be the costliest ever. The death toll from the earthquake, the tsunamis and the resultant floods is currently approxiated at over 230,000 people, with tens of thousands more reported missing, and over one million left homeless. In addition to the large number of local residents, up to 9,000 foreign tourists (mostly Europeans, and especially Scandinavians) enjoying the peak holiday travel season were among the dead. Beyond the heavy toll on human lives, the Indian Ocean earthquake caused an enormous environmental impact which will affect the region for many years to come. It has been reported that severe damage has been inflicted on ecosystems such as mangroves, coral reefs, forests, coastal wetlands, vegetation, sand dunes and rock formations, animal and plant biodiversity and groundwater. In addition, the spread of solid and liquid waste and industrial chemicals, water pollution and the destruction of sewage collectors and treatment plants threaten the environment even further, in untold ways.

The message I try to get through to people is "Anytime, anywhere..." Whether it is a terrorism, or a natural disaster, catastrophe can strike "anytime, anywhere..." This message does not suggest that people should "live in fear," only that they make preparedness as much a part of their lives as locking their doors, protecting their wallets or keeping an eye on their children in the street. Preparedness (which is more common sense than anything else) should be as integral as any other basic precaution. It should be second nature to you. But we can only get to the point where it is second nature for people by developing and implementing relevant, real-world awareness and education programs. Strong awareness and education together with stream-lined, but powerful crisis management capability will get the job done.

All organizations should generate a global travel security awareness message, endorsed by executive leadership, which recommends some simple precautions. It could have a profound impact on overcoming difficulties in times of crisis.

Make certain that your organization has current, accurate and complete emergency contact information for your people. (Often, the emergency contact numbers that people provide are for loved ones physically with them when they are in harm's way.)

Encourage your people to leave copies of travel itineraries (business, holiday or personal time off) with both friends or family members *and* colleagues at work

All your people should carry a laminated card with crisis hotline telephone numbers and calling instructions for use in the event that they are traveling or working in the vicinity of a disaster (e.g., major earthquake, tsunami or terrorist attack). It should include contact information for emergency services, e.g., evacuation for medical security reasons. Of course, this recommendation assumes that you have established 24x7 crisis hotline (either internally or through some organization such as Control Risk, and contracted for emergency evacuation and medical services from International SOS or some other provider.

Whenever possible, your people should book their personal travel through your organization's authorized corporate travel agency in order to assist in tracking their whereabouts should a crisis occur. If you have thousands, or tens of thousands, of people traveling all over the world, you should use an application such as Travel Locator.

This message should be distributed as widely as possible. Using e-mail and intranet sites, it can cost next to nothing. Even the cost of incorporating it into indoctrination materials, and printing the lamented cards is trivial. And its value is no less than the difference between life or death for some of your people.

The costs of services such as CR24, ISOS Travel Locator, etc. are not significant for global enterprises that employ thousands, tens of thousands, or hundreds of thousands of people.

It would surprise you (or would it?) how resistent many corporations can be to even to this simple, economical approach.

Here is an excerpt from PEER's revelations about the tsunami-related vulnerability of Hawaii and California:

New evidence from the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami is causing civil defense modelers to reassess recommended evacuation zones and the hazards of multiple waves...These new analyses suggest that the tsunami threat to Hawaii, particularly the south shore of Oahu, and California may be much greater than previously calculated.
One ominous aspect of the new studies is the increased vulnerability of populated coastal areas. Man-made developments along the shore slow the retreat of the flood caused by the first tsunami wave. Later waves then ride over the already-flooded area higher and faster. U.S. Geological Survey scientists have also warned NOAA of the multiple wave pile-up effect, caused by slow drainage of the tsunami because the seaward component of gravity is small in flat areas. The next tsunami wave arrives before the water from the previous waves returns to the ocean.
As a result, recommended evacuation zones, particularly in areas with harbors and channels or rivers, would have to be expanded to account for larger waves coming in a series of increasing heights. In the December 2004 tsunami, one observer described effects occurring on Sri Lanka a full kilometer from shore:
“It wasn’t one wave; it came in great surges, each one deeper than the last. Subsequent waves ride over a region already flooded resulting in higher and faster waves. The first wave knocked them off their feet, the second picked them up and carried them, often up to 50 km/hr, and the third bore them up to 15 meters high or sucked them under.”
Ironically, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is relocating its Pacific Tsunami Warning Center to an island in the middle of Pearl Harbor on the south coast of Oahu, a location with a high tsunami danger. NOAA staff scientists are concerned that the tsunami warning center could not function in this new location, called Ford Island, after the first tsunami wave hits. NOAA is vetoing plans to co-locate the tsunami warning center with Hawaiian state and local civil defense offices 300 feet above sea level on the high slopes of Diamond Head Crater.

Tsunami Threat to Hawaii and West Coast Underestimated: Models Do Not Account for Multiple, Bigger Waves Inundating Populated Areas, Public Employees For Environmental Responsibility, Common Dreams, 7-12-06

RELATED POSTS:

GS(3) Thunderbolt: Travel Security Lessons from the Upheaval within the Ring of Fire

Words of Power #1: Truths Salvaged from Post-Katrina Debacle

Hard Rain Journal 7-11-06: Bird Flu Update – Woe in Indonesia, Concern in Africa, & Preparedness in An Australian Resort & Small Town USA

Words of Power #2: Indonesia’s State of Emergency on Bird Flu Demands Your Attention

Richard Power is the founder of GS(3) Intelligence and http://www.wordsofpower.net. His work focuses on the inter-related issues of security, sustainability and spirit, and how to overcome the challenges of terrorism, cyber crime, global warming, health emergencies, natural disasters, etc. You can reach him via e-mail: richardpower@wordsofpower.net. For more information, go to www.wordsofpower.net

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